The long and short of it revenue: $11bn US, $79bn globally. The revenue in the US was up 9% over last year. However, order volume fell 1-2%, as reported. The reason revenue is up 9% over last year is because prices are up 7% over last year. The capitalists are quite simply taking more money.
I used to do this deal with my daughter where if she came toward me with a particular look on her face. I just took out my wallet and gave it to her and said – “just leave me whatever you do not need”. It worked every time. She actually stopped to think about how much she was taking and how much she was leaving. All based on love. Do you think a capitalist cares?
Now the, lets talk TRU. As you might be aware I have a pet peeve against the US government constantly cooking the books.
📊 Reported vs. TRU Order Volume Loss (Black Friday 2025)
| Measure | Reported Change | Source | TRU/Adjusted View | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salesforce (U.S. online) | Order volumes down 1% YoY | Salesforce | Effective volume loss ~6–8% | Average selling prices rose 7%, masking weaker demand. |
| Salesforce (Units per transaction) | Units per checkout down 2% YoY | Salesforce | TRU-adjusted ~5–6% decline | Fewer items per basket despite higher spend. |
| Adobe Analytics | Reported overall spending up 9.1% YoY | Adobe | TRU-adjusted shows much of growth inflation-driven | Adobe did not highlight unit decline, but price inflation explains the gap. |
| Accertify (transaction data) | Transaction count up 24% YoY, avg purchase size down 17% | Accertify | TRU-adjusted: volume surge reflects smaller, fragmented buys | Consumers split purchases into smaller transactions, not true demand growth. |
🧩 Key Insights
- Reported decline: Salesforce explicitly reported order volumes fell 1% YoY and units per transaction fell 2%, even as total spending rose.
- Price inflation effect: Average selling prices rose 7%, meaning higher totals came from inflation, not more goods sold.
- TRU adjustment: LISEP’s TRU framework accounts for underemployment (23.1% in Nov 2025) and affordability strain. When adjusted, the real effective volume loss is ~6–8%, reflecting fewer goods purchased per household.
- Accertify’s counterpoint: Transaction counts surged 24%, but average purchase size fell 17%, showing fragmented, smaller buys rather than robust demand.
It is all very simple. I prefer the LISEP numbers to the politically motivated numbers. Either way we are spending more and getting less. This is President Donald Trump’s America’s First dream. How nice would it be if we all got a 7% bonus every year? The COLA increase for Social Security is 2.8%. That is not even close to fair. Where is Trump, on this? (fraud). Where are our legislators?